Thursday, January 8th 2009

By Lily Panamsky

2009 may see the biggest leap to solve environmental issues in years, or so the United Nations hopes. The organization is surely holding its breath and crossing its fingers.

A replacement for the Kyoto Protocol, an international agreement to counter climate change, is set to be mapped-out in December 2009. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 and put into full effect in 2005, with 141 countries ratifying it. The main stipulation of the protocol was to limit greenhouse gas (GH) emissions. To date, there are a total of 183 countries that have endorsed the agreement.

“Greenhouse gases” are naturally present in the Earth’s atmosphere, and are responsible for warming the planet about 33 degrees (Celsius) higher than the temperature would be otherwise. They constitute only one percent of the atmosphere, but cover and warm the Earth like a blanket. Water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and fluorocarbons are the most abundant atmospheric gases. 

The heating effect occurs because short-wave solar radiation passes through the atmosphere and hits the surface of the earth, which causes long-wave infrared radiation (heat) to rise from the surface. Some of the radiation attempting to travel back to space gets trapped in the atmosphere by atmospheric gases. The GHG effect is a natural process on the planet, but it has been amplified since the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the late 18^th century.

A 2007 report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared climate change—or more specifically global warming—to be “unequivocal,” and “most likely” due to human activity. The report stated that the Earth’s temperature has risen approximately 0.74 degrees over the past century, and is projected to further rise by 0.2 degrees every decade if we continue to over-emit greenhouse gases.

Carbon dioxide is the biggest contributor to this exaggerated GHG effect, simply because it is the gas most often emitted through human activity. The burning of fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—releases excess carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. As this excess gas builds up, it traps more infrared radiation and overheats the Earth. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) attributes over 60 per cent of the enhanced greenhouse effect to carbon emissions.

The areas that are most responsible for global warming are the industrialized countries in North America and Europe. The Kyoto Protocol recognized that industrialized countries must be the ones to abate and reverse global warming, and thus committed 37 developed countries, including Canada, to carbon emission limitations and cutbacks. The plan involves reducing GHG emissions by 5.2 percent from 1990 levels between the years 2008 and 2012.

The Kyoto Protocol introduced the Clean Developing Mechanism (CDM), a system that allows one of the 37 countries committed to lowering GHG levels to establish an emission-reduction project in a developing country and receive free carbon credits—also referred to as certified emission reduction (CER) credits. This program, the first of its kind, is meant to provide relief to those countries that cannot combat climate change on their own.

When the first period of the Kyoto Protocol runs out in 2012, the 15th annual UNFCCC Conference of Parties will be held in Copenhagen, Denmark, to determine another international climate agreement. There will also be at least three other major UNFCCC conferences during that year.

The problem, however, is that the members from the 192 countries present at the conference must all agree on a Copenhagen Protocol that will successfully replace its predecessor. This may prove no easy task.

The Economist speculated that the only agreement to come from the conference would likely be the agreement to continue brainstorming. What’s more, UNFCCC itself has admitted that they lack the funding needed to properly address the climate change issue. The Secretariat of the UNFCCC released a financial report that estimated the required funds to maintain current global GHG emission levels in 2030 to be about USD $200-210 billion. They are seeking additional monetary support, particularly from private investors, that may not come.

Funding or not, environmental organizations have already recognized many visible effect of global warming. One notable effect is the intensification of already extreme climates. Droughts, floods, and tropical storms are becoming more severe with each passing decade. In fact, the Economist stated that over the past two decades, recorded disasters have doubled from 200 a year to 400 a year, and that nine out of every 10 disasters are now climate-related. Furthermore, BBC News announced that ice in the Arctic is retreating to unprecedented levels. Sea levels are rising and intruding into other bodies of water, introducing saltwater into previously freshwater areas.

The UNFCCC reported that climate change has been observed in at least 420 physical processes and biological species or communities. Such changes include earlier mating seasons in animal species and the migration of some plant species to remain in the same temperature zone. It also described how global warming is aiding the spread of vector-borne diseases—diseases transferred from one individual to another by arthropods. Malaria and cholera are making further advances into Africa, dengue fever and Lyme disease are spreading in the Tropics and Africa, and the West Nile virus—originally a tropical disease—has found its way to North America.

Unfortunately, the areas that are the least responsible for global warming are the areas that suffer the most from it. Developing countries in Africa and in the Tropics are the most vulnerable to climate-induced changes, for they lack the basic resources to handle weather-related disasters. The developing world faces disease and shortages of food and water, and most economic development is fettered by climate change.

The United States, the biggest producer of GHGs, is responsible for a quarter of excess emissions, but has refused to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. Instead, the country claims to be fighting climate change on its own terms. American President-elect Barack Obama has promised to cut GHG emissions by establishing a cap and trade system. Large companies throughout the country will have a limit to the amount of GHGs they can emit, and if they are under the limit, they may sell their “credits” to other companies. Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia, Manitoba and seven western States have signed onto the Western Climate Initiative, a collaboration planning on implementing the first transcontinental cap and trade system.

Much like the US, Canada is facing growing pressure to reduce global warming. The country emits one of the highest percentages of GHGs, on both a per capita basis and per dollar of GDP basis. The 2009 Climate Change Performance Index—produced by the organization Germanwatch and the Climate Action Network of Europe—ranked Canada as the second worst country (out of a total of 60) on fighting climate change. The country has had a few issues regarding the Kyoto Protocol in recent years. Under the agreement, Canada was targeted to reduce GHG emissions by six per cent below 1990 levels by 2012. CBC News reported that the country will be unable to meet these requirements by 2012. Stephen Harper dismissed the Kyoto Protocol as a “socialist scheme” in 2006, according to the Toronto Star, and vowed to focus on a “Made in Canada” approach to global warming.

Harper announced in October 2008 that Canada would allot $100 million to assist the countries most vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, including those in Africa, the Caribbean and the South Pacific. Canada also recently implemented the “Turning the Corner Plan,” a course of action designed to reduce GHGs by 20 per cent from 2006-2020. Regulations of Canadian GHG emissions are to be finalized this upcoming year and put into play in 2010. Nevertheless, The Edmonton Sun admitted that Canada’s role in the upcoming Copenhagen conference is still undecided.

If all goes according to plan this year, Canada’s initiatives will increase its rank in the Climate Change Performance Index, and perhaps more importantly, the world will see the development of a Copenhagen Protocol that will continue the fight against global warming. Keep those fingers crossed, UN.

Tags: Canada, Kyoto, United Nations