Thursday, November 26th 2009

By unknown

Ron Levitin

OPINIONS

Last week there was an article in the Silhouette regarding Gwynne Dyer’s presentation on Nov. 9th. While the article was a good summary of the presentation, the fact remains that Dr. Dyer tried to obfuscate many of the real issues pertaining to Iran during his lecture.

I can only assume the “most recent U.S. Intelligence report” that Dr. Dyer referenced was the U.S. 2007 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE). Dr. Dyer used this as a basis for doubting the veracity of the program, however in recent months the world community has been exposed to several new revelations about Iran’s nuclear program, which cast suspicion on that report.

U.S. Intelligence officials released statements indicating they knew of the facilities existence for several years, prior to the 2007 NIE. Additionally, International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors who visited the facility in recent months have issued a report stating they believe Iran is hiding additional facilities and likely many components of their program.

Dr. Dyer indicated that as Shia Muslims, Iranian government officials has no ambitions beyond their own society. This is a misconception. The form of Islam promoted by the Iranian government believes in the Twelfth Imam; or Hidden Imam. This Hidden Imam is considered the messiah and will only return during an apocalyptic battle. The Iranian government believes that they can hasten his return through their actions.

Regardless of whether Iran would use nuclear weapons, possession of these weapons would likely destabilize the region. Pro-Western countries in the Arab world would ally themselves with Iran to ensure their safety. Further, it could spark a regional arms race not seen since the non-proliferation agreement.

Aside from a nuclear program, there are three other issues raised by the Canadian government: incitement to genocide, widespread internal repression and human rights abuses, and state-sponsored terrorism. Ayatollah Hossein Nousi-Hamedani has said, “One should fight the Jews and vanquish them so that the conditions for the advent of the Hidden Imam be met”.  This quotation calls for the elimination of an entire ethnic group and reinforces the ideology surrounding the Twelfth Imam. These statements are not isolated occurrences and are in direct contravention of the International Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide, of which Iran is a signatory. Signatories of the convention are obligated to prevent genocide, providing legal basis for countries such as the U.S. and Canada to take action.

Another issue is the widespread internal repression following the June Presidential election. Thousands of Iranians took to the streets in protest to the rigged presidential election. Protestors were brutally suppressed by Iranian security forces and the Basij militias. The government arrested hundreds of pro-democratic, peaceful protestors, many of them university students. There have been numerous reports of rape and torture in prisons, along with disappearances. This does not even include the repression of homosexuals and women throughout the country.

Finally there is also the matter of Iran’s continued support of international terrorism, as well as its ambitions in the Middle East. This is quite contrary to Gwynne’s views, and accordingly he spent very little time on it, saying only that “‘The Iranian revolution has not attacked anybody for 25 years, … while the country may have ‘occasionally support[ed] terrorist attacks,’ there is ‘no evidence at all that Iran has behaved on a large international scale.’”

These statements are inherently false. For example, the current Defense Minister and former head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps is a wanted terrorist. Ahmad Vahidi is on INTERPOL’s most-wanted list in connection with the bombing of a Jewish Centre in Buenos Aires. The attack in 1994 left 84 civilians dead, and hundreds more wounded. This attack was carried out by Hizballah, providing further evidence of state sponsored terrorism. More recently, on Nov. 4th, Israel intercepted a ship in the Mediterranean that attempted to smuggle over 500 tons of missiles, rockets and other weapons to Hizballah in Lebanon. For context, this is over 10 times the amount of weaponry that was found on another smuggling vessel in 2002, which led to the complete collapse of U.S. support for Palestinian Leader Yasser Arafat.

Iran’s reach is not limited to Israel and the West, but they also have set their sights on the Gulf region, where they are guiding the Houthi rebels in their guerrilla war against Yemen. Interestingly, this war is scarcely covered in the media.

The fighting with the Houthi rebels in Yemen recently spilled across Saudi Arabia’s southern border, and the Saudi’s responded by initiating a massive air bombing campaign against the Houthis. In response, just last week both an Iranian Major General and an Iranian parliamentarian threatened Saudi Arabia and accused them of perpetrating “Wahhabi Terror” against the Houthi in Yemen. It is still unclear how these events will unfold, but it will certainly be a different outcome than if Iran was already in possession of nuclear weapons.

Taken altogether, the nuclear threat, incitement to genocide, human rights abuses, and support for terror present a strong case for taking Iran seriously as a player on the international stage. As a result, it is clear that Dr. Dyer’s presentation played down the threats and role of Iran, and he left out a large number of facts to support his viewpoint.